US investment bank Morgan Stanley, said on Friday that its global economic forecasts and its bull/base/bear scenarios for output, inflation and policy rates have left the main MS thesis intact, but show quite clearly where the risks to the main macroeconomic indicators lie going forward. In a nutshell, MS continues to expect global growth to resume in the second half of 2009 (2H09) but warn that any recovery will likely be anaemic. It sees some ‘green shoots’ in the survey measures, with improvements in the German Ifo Business Index and the US ISM (Institute of Supply Management) PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) for the last three months along with a significant improvement in the second derivative of GDP. Further, MS expects that the drop in global inflation and deflation in most of the G10 and much of Asia will likely be temporary and mild inflation will make a return to both these regions in 2010.