The German Kiel Institute for the World Economy said today that in the first quarter of 2009 global production continued to shrink at a breathtaking pace, but indicators increasingly point to stabilisation of output in the course of the summer semester. However, it expects the coming recovery to be modest by historical standards. Global GDP is forecast to rise by 2.3 percent in 2010, again significantly below its trend growth rate. While this represents a slight upward revision from March projections, the outlook for economic growth in 2009 has significantly deteriorated further. Kiel now expects world output to drop by 1.5 percent (March forecast: –0.8 percent). The Institute says German exports will start growing, again, in the second half of the year.