Emerging markets and domestic-demand-led growth: Rapid recovery in sight but not sufficient to counter several anaemic years in developed economies
Jul 27th, 2009 | By Finfacts Ireland Business & Finance Portal | Category: News worldwide
Deutsche Bank Research says economic growth in the developed economies will likely be anaemic for several years to come due to continued de-leveraging in the household and banking sector. By contrast, the downturn in the emerging markets (EMs) will be short-lived by comparison, and a rapid return to sustained growth in many, if not all, EMs is likely by 2011. Thanks to solid economic fundamentals, the EM-6 (Brazil, China, India, Korea, Mexico, Russia) have been (or will be) able to engineer a more or less rapid recovery by boosting domestic demand. However, due to permanently weaker global demand and hence weaker export growth, EMs will not match the above-average growth rates seen over the past few years.